Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. / Lohmann, Johannes; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Jochum, Markus; Lucarini, Valerio; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

In: Science Advances, Vol. 10, No. 12, eadi4253, 2024.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Lohmann, J, Dijkstra, HA, Jochum, M, Lucarini, V & Ditlevsen, PD 2024, 'Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation', Science Advances, vol. 10, no. 12, eadi4253. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

APA

Lohmann, J., Dijkstra, H. A., Jochum, M., Lucarini, V., & Ditlevsen, P. D. (2024). Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Science Advances, 10(12), [eadi4253]. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Vancouver

Lohmann J, Dijkstra HA, Jochum M, Lucarini V, Ditlevsen PD. Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Science Advances. 2024;10(12). eadi4253. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Author

Lohmann, Johannes ; Dijkstra, Henk A. ; Jochum, Markus ; Lucarini, Valerio ; Ditlevsen, Peter D. / Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. In: Science Advances. 2024 ; Vol. 10, No. 12.

Bibtex

@article{9a1ceffa905f45c29987d2b9231be0d6,

title = "Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation",

abstract = "Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.",

author = "Johannes Lohmann and Dijkstra, {Henk A.} and Markus Jochum and Valerio Lucarini and Ditlevsen, {Peter D.}",

year = "2024",

doi = "10.1126/sciadv.adi4253",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

journal = "Science advances",

issn = "2375-2548",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "12",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

AU - Lohmann, Johannes

AU - Dijkstra, Henk A.

AU - Jochum, Markus

AU - Lucarini, Valerio

AU - Ditlevsen, Peter D.

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.

AB - Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 38517955

AN - SCOPUS:85188867295

VL - 10

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

SN - 2375-2548

IS - 12

M1 - eadi4253

ER -

ID: 389961308

Niels Bohr Institute