TY - JOUR

T1 - Dansgaard-Oeschger events in climate models

T2 - review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

AU - Malmierca-Vallet, Irene

AU - Sime, Louise C.

AU - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

AU - Born, Andreas

AU - Bouttes, Nathaelle

AU - DItlevsen, Peter

AU - Erb, Michael P.

AU - Feulner, Georg

AU - Gowan, Evan J.

AU - Gregoire, Lauren

AU - Guo, Chuncheng

AU - Harrison, Sandy P.

AU - Andres, Heather

AU - Kageyama, Masa

AU - Klockmann, Marlene

AU - Lambert, Fabrice

AU - LeGrande, Allegra N.

AU - Merkel, Ute

AU - Nazarenko, Larissa S.

AU - Nisancioglu, Kerim H.

AU - Oliver, Kevin

AU - Otto-Bliesner, Bette

AU - Peltier, William R.

AU - Prange, Matthias

AU - Rehfeld, Kira

AU - Robinson, Alexander J.

AU - Tarasov, Lev

AU - Valdes, Paul J.

AU - Vettoretti, Guido

AU - Weitzel, Nils

AU - Zhang, Qiong

AU - Zhang, Xu

AU - The D-O community members

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © Copyright:

PY - 2023/5/8

Y1 - 2023/5/8

N2 - Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, millennial-scale climate oscillations between stadial and interstadial conditions (of up to 10-15°C in amplitude at high northern latitudes), occurred throughout the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; 27.8-59.4ka) period. The climate modelling community up to now has not been able to answer the question of whether our climate models are too stable to simulate D-O events. To address this, this paper lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D-O protocol for general circulation models which are used in the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. We review the following: D-O terminology, community progress on simulating D-O events in these IPCC-class models (processes and published examples), and evidence about the boundary conditions under which D-O events occur. We find that no model exhibits D-O-like behaviour under pre-industrial conditions. Some, but not all, models exhibit D-O-like oscillations under MIS3 and/or full glacial conditions. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet configurations are crucial. However most models have not run simulations of long enough duration to be sure which models show D-O-like behaviour, under either MIS3 or full glacial states. We propose a MIS3 baseline protocol at 34ka, which features low obliquity values, medium to low MIS3 greenhouse gas values, and the intermediate ice sheet configuration, which our review suggests are most conducive to D-O-like behaviour in models. We also provide a protocol for a second freshwater (Heinrich-event-preconditioned) experiment, since previous work suggests that this variant may be helpful in preconditioning a state in models which is conducive to D-O events. This review provides modelling groups investigating MIS3 D-O oscillations with a common framework, which is aimed at (1) maximising the chance of the occurrence of D-O-like events in the simulations, (2) allowing more precise model-data evaluation, and (3) providing an adequate central point for modellers to explore model stability.

AB - Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, millennial-scale climate oscillations between stadial and interstadial conditions (of up to 10-15°C in amplitude at high northern latitudes), occurred throughout the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; 27.8-59.4ka) period. The climate modelling community up to now has not been able to answer the question of whether our climate models are too stable to simulate D-O events. To address this, this paper lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D-O protocol for general circulation models which are used in the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. We review the following: D-O terminology, community progress on simulating D-O events in these IPCC-class models (processes and published examples), and evidence about the boundary conditions under which D-O events occur. We find that no model exhibits D-O-like behaviour under pre-industrial conditions. Some, but not all, models exhibit D-O-like oscillations under MIS3 and/or full glacial conditions. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet configurations are crucial. However most models have not run simulations of long enough duration to be sure which models show D-O-like behaviour, under either MIS3 or full glacial states. We propose a MIS3 baseline protocol at 34ka, which features low obliquity values, medium to low MIS3 greenhouse gas values, and the intermediate ice sheet configuration, which our review suggests are most conducive to D-O-like behaviour in models. We also provide a protocol for a second freshwater (Heinrich-event-preconditioned) experiment, since previous work suggests that this variant may be helpful in preconditioning a state in models which is conducive to D-O events. This review provides modelling groups investigating MIS3 D-O oscillations with a common framework, which is aimed at (1) maximising the chance of the occurrence of D-O-like events in the simulations, (2) allowing more precise model-data evaluation, and (3) providing an adequate central point for modellers to explore model stability.

U2 - 10.5194/cp-19-915-2023

DO - 10.5194/cp-19-915-2023

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85159400981

VL - 19

SP - 915

EP - 942

JO - Climate of the Past

JF - Climate of the Past

SN - 1814-9324

IS - 5

ER -