Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
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Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX). / Akperov, Mirseid; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Rinke, Annette; Mokhov, Igor I.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Dembitskaya, Mariya; Matthes, Heidrun; Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens H.; Dethloff, Klaus; Fettweis, Xavier; Gutjahr, Oliver; Heinemann, Günther; Koenigk, Torben; Sein, Dmitry; Laprise, René; Mottram, Ruth; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Sobolowski, Stefan; Winger, Katja; Zhang, Wenxin.
I: Anthropocene, Bind 44, 100402, 2023.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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T1 - Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
AU - Akperov, Mirseid
AU - Eliseev, Alexey V.
AU - Rinke, Annette
AU - Mokhov, Igor I.
AU - Semenov, Vladimir A.
AU - Dembitskaya, Mariya
AU - Matthes, Heidrun
AU - Adakudlu, Muralidhar
AU - Boberg, Fredrik
AU - Christensen, Jens H.
AU - Dethloff, Klaus
AU - Fettweis, Xavier
AU - Gutjahr, Oliver
AU - Heinemann, Günther
AU - Koenigk, Torben
AU - Sein, Dmitry
AU - Laprise, René
AU - Mottram, Ruth
AU - Nikiéma, Oumarou
AU - Sobolowski, Stefan
AU - Winger, Katja
AU - Zhang, Wenxin
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.
AB - The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.
KW - Arctic
KW - Biogeophysical feedback
KW - Climate change
KW - CORDEX
KW - ERA5
KW - Regional climate models
KW - Sea ice
KW - Surface roughness
KW - Wind energy
KW - Wind speed
U2 - 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100402
DO - 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100402
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85171681717
VL - 44
JO - Anthropocene
JF - Anthropocene
SN - 2213-3054
M1 - 100402
ER -
ID: 369352128