Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

M. Sloth Madsen, C. Fox Maule, N. MacKellar, J. E. Olesen, J. Hesselbjerg Christensen

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftFood Additives and Contaminants - Part A Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment
Vol/bind29
Udgave nummer10
Sider (fra-til)1502-1513
Antal sider12
ISSN1944-0049
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 1 okt. 2012
Eksternt udgivetJa

ID: 186940310