Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

R. P. Daanen, T. Ingeman-Nielsen, S. S. Marchenko, V. E. Romanovsky, N. Foged, M. Stendel, J. H. Christensen, K. Hornbech Svendsen

In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftCryosphere
Vol/bind5
Udgave nummer4
Sider (fra-til)1043-1056
Antal sider14
ISSN1994-0416
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 30 nov. 2011
Eksternt udgivetJa

ID: 186940539