Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models

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Standard

Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models. / Boberg, Fredrik; Berg, Peter; Thejll, Peter; Gutowski, William J.; Christensen, Jens H.

I: Climate Dynamics, Bind 35, Nr. 7, 01.12.2010, s. 1509-1520.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Harvard

Boberg, F, Berg, P, Thejll, P, Gutowski, WJ & Christensen, JH 2010, 'Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models', Climate Dynamics, bind 35, nr. 7, s. 1509-1520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

APA

Boberg, F., Berg, P., Thejll, P., Gutowski, W. J., & Christensen, J. H. (2010). Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models. Climate Dynamics, 35(7), 1509-1520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

Vancouver

Boberg F, Berg P, Thejll P, Gutowski WJ, Christensen JH. Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models. Climate Dynamics. 2010 dec 1;35(7):1509-1520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

Author

Boberg, Fredrik ; Berg, Peter ; Thejll, Peter ; Gutowski, William J. ; Christensen, Jens H. / Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models. I: Climate Dynamics. 2010 ; Bind 35, Nr. 7. s. 1509-1520.

Bibtex

@article{7c14d57de7c14db4812fe1d3477adac6,
title = "Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models",
abstract = "Probability density functions for daily precipitation data are used as a validation tool comparing station measurements to seven transient regional climate model runs, with a horizontal resolution of 25 km and driven by the SRES A1B scenario forcing, within the ENSEMBLES project. The validation is performed for the control period 1961-1990 for eight predefined European subregions, and a ninth region enclosing all eight subregions, with different climate characteristics. Models that best match the observations are then used for making climate change projections of precipitation distributions during the twenty-first century for each subregion separately. We find, compared to the control period, a distinct decrease in the contribution to the total precipitation for days with moderate precipitation and a distinct increase for days with more intense precipitation. This change in contribution to the total precipitation is found to amplify with time during all of the twenty-first century with an average rate of 1.1{\%} K-1. Furthermore, the crossover point separating the decreasing from the increasing contributions does not show any significant change with time for any specific subregion. These results are a confirmation and a specification of the results from a previous study using the same station measurements but with a regional climate model ensemble within the PRUDENCE project.",
keywords = "Climate change, Extreme events, Precipitation, Probability density function, Regional climate models",
author = "Fredrik Boberg and Peter Berg and Peter Thejll and Gutowski, {William J.} and Christensen, {Jens H.}",
year = "2010",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8",
language = "English",
volume = "35",
pages = "1509--1520",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
issn = "0930-7575",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "7",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models

AU - Boberg, Fredrik

AU - Berg, Peter

AU - Thejll, Peter

AU - Gutowski, William J.

AU - Christensen, Jens H.

PY - 2010/12/1

Y1 - 2010/12/1

N2 - Probability density functions for daily precipitation data are used as a validation tool comparing station measurements to seven transient regional climate model runs, with a horizontal resolution of 25 km and driven by the SRES A1B scenario forcing, within the ENSEMBLES project. The validation is performed for the control period 1961-1990 for eight predefined European subregions, and a ninth region enclosing all eight subregions, with different climate characteristics. Models that best match the observations are then used for making climate change projections of precipitation distributions during the twenty-first century for each subregion separately. We find, compared to the control period, a distinct decrease in the contribution to the total precipitation for days with moderate precipitation and a distinct increase for days with more intense precipitation. This change in contribution to the total precipitation is found to amplify with time during all of the twenty-first century with an average rate of 1.1% K-1. Furthermore, the crossover point separating the decreasing from the increasing contributions does not show any significant change with time for any specific subregion. These results are a confirmation and a specification of the results from a previous study using the same station measurements but with a regional climate model ensemble within the PRUDENCE project.

AB - Probability density functions for daily precipitation data are used as a validation tool comparing station measurements to seven transient regional climate model runs, with a horizontal resolution of 25 km and driven by the SRES A1B scenario forcing, within the ENSEMBLES project. The validation is performed for the control period 1961-1990 for eight predefined European subregions, and a ninth region enclosing all eight subregions, with different climate characteristics. Models that best match the observations are then used for making climate change projections of precipitation distributions during the twenty-first century for each subregion separately. We find, compared to the control period, a distinct decrease in the contribution to the total precipitation for days with moderate precipitation and a distinct increase for days with more intense precipitation. This change in contribution to the total precipitation is found to amplify with time during all of the twenty-first century with an average rate of 1.1% K-1. Furthermore, the crossover point separating the decreasing from the increasing contributions does not show any significant change with time for any specific subregion. These results are a confirmation and a specification of the results from a previous study using the same station measurements but with a regional climate model ensemble within the PRUDENCE project.

KW - Climate change

KW - Extreme events

KW - Precipitation

KW - Probability density function

KW - Regional climate models

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78249263461&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

DO - 10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:78249263461

VL - 35

SP - 1509

EP - 1520

JO - Climate Dynamics

JF - Climate Dynamics

SN - 0930-7575

IS - 7

ER -

ID: 186940954