TY - JOUR

T1 - Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots

T2 - A Study Based on CORDEX Data

AU - Spinoni, Jonathan

AU - Barbosa, Paulo

AU - Bucchignani, Edoardo

AU - Cassano, John

AU - Cavazos, Tereza

AU - Christensen, Jens H.

AU - Christensen, Ole B.

AU - Coppola, Erika

AU - Evans, Jason

AU - Geyer, Beate

AU - Giorgi, Filippo

AU - Hadjinicolaou, Panos

AU - Jacob, Daniela

AU - Katzfey, Jack

AU - Koenigk, Torben

AU - Laprise, Rene

AU - Lennard, Christopher J.

AU - Kurnaz, M. Levent

AU - Li, Delei

AU - Llopart, Marta

AU - McCormick, Niall

AU - Naumann, Gustavo

AU - Nikulin, Grigory

AU - Ozturk, Tugba

AU - Panitz, Hans-Juergen

AU - da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio

AU - Rockel, Burkhardt

AU - Solman, Silvina A.

AU - Syktus, Jozef

AU - Tangang, Fredolin

AU - Teichmann, Claas

AU - Vautard, Robert

AU - Vogt, Juergen V.

AU - Winger, Katja

AU - Zittis, George

AU - Dosio, Alessandro

PY - 2020/5

Y1 - 2020/5

N2 - Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

AB - Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS

KW - EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

KW - POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

KW - PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY

KW - HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS

KW - FOOD SECURITY

KW - CMIP5

KW - TEMPERATURE

KW - MULTIMODEL

KW - SIMULATIONS

U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1

DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1

M3 - Journal article

VL - 33

SP - 3635

EP - 3661

JO - Journal of Climate

JF - Journal of Climate

SN - 0894-8755

IS - 9

ER -