Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Raymond W. Arritt, Christopher J. Anderson, Eugene S. Takle, Zaitao Pan, William J. Gutowski, Francis O. Otieno, Renato Da Silva, Daniel Caya, Jens H. Christensen, Daniel Lüthi, Miguel A. Gaertner, Clemente Gallardo, Song You Hong, Colin Jones, H. M.H. Juang, J. J. Katzfey, William M. Lapenta, René Laprise, Jay W. Larson, Glen E. Liston & 4 andre John L. McGregor, Roger A. Pielke, John O. Roads, John A. Taylor

The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average ensemble, perturbed physics ensemble, mixed physics ensemble, and multi-model ensemble. The results show that the similarity in spread between the mixed-physics and multi-model ensembles raises the possibility that a mixed-physics ensemble approach could be considered as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. The mixed-physics ensemble performed well in terms of equitable threat score, especially for higher precipitation amounts.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Sider (fra-til)2347-2350
Antal sider4
ISSN0003-0007
StatusUdgivet - 1 jun. 2004

ID: 186942489