PhD Thesis Defence by Sisse Camilla Lundholm – Niels Bohr Institutet - Københavns Universitet

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PhD Thesis Defence by Sisse Camilla Lundholm

Verification of Global Radiation Forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System at DMI


Abstract:
To comply with an increasing demand for sustainable energy sources, a
smart solar heating unit has been developed at the Technical University of
Denmark in collaboration with a number of different partners — including
DMI.
This smart solar heating unit is equipped with an advanced control sys-
tem based on forecasts of the available solar energy. To make optimal use
— environmentally and economically —, of the smart solar heating unit,
accurate predictions of the solar radiation are essential.

Within the project on developing this smart solar heating unit, it has
been the task of DMI and thus my Ph.D.-project to deliver accurate forecasts
of the solar radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. However, because of
its sensitivity to local meteorological conditions, the solar radiation received
at the surface of the Earth can be highly fluctuating and challenging to
forecast accurately. An evaluation of forecasts from the numerical weather
prediction model at DMI has been performed and followed by a revision of
the radiation scheme in DMI’s weather model.

The use of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast solar radia-
tion induce uncertainties in these forecasts. These uncertainties are relevant
in accurate predictions and can become accessible by running an ensemble of
forecasts. To this end, DMI’s ensemble prediction system has since August
2011 made calculations of the solar radiation reaching the surface of the
Earth. The ensemble forecasts have been evaluated and the appropriateness
of complementing forecasts of solar radiation with uncertainty estimates as
derived from the ensemble forecasts has been assessed.